Not willing to make predictions about the future of HDTV with all the other analysts, In-Stat has jumped ahead with its latest report, a peek at the future of Ultra High Definition (though the kids are calling it Super Hi-Vision these days.) We'd heard the 8K / 4K broadcasts could flip on as early as 2015, but this report pegs 2017 - 2022 as a more likely time period, with the expectation that 28.2% of European households will be sporting the 22.2-channel audio spec by 2025. Of course, if you must be first on the block with it, there's always JVC's $175k DLA-RS4000 available right now.

Always good for an optimistic Blu-ray outlook, analyst Futuresource this week continued to peg 2012 as the year Blu-ray breaks into the mainstream, while reducing its prediction of discs sold this year in the format from 95 to 75 million. The expectation is that within the next couple of years hardware could drop to as cheap as $50 for an "entry-level" Blu-ray player, with dedicated set-top box owners snapping up high definition discs at a much quicker rate than the currently PS3-dominated (6% to 3%) audience. Check Video Business for the full recap, but just in case you hadn't heard, rumors of Blu-ray's impending demise are greatly exaggerated.

As frequently predicted, Blu-ray hasn't been enough to make up for sagging DVD sales, as a new Screen Digest report indicates a 4.8 percent slide worldwide last year, falling more than $2.6 billion. After plateauing approaching 2007, disc sales have been falling ever since and even Blu-ray's $482 million contribution can't hold up the slack. Still, it's looking at online rentals like Lovefilm and Quickflix to make up for some of the rental losses internationally, but don't expect Blu-ray to help grow the market at all until at least 2010. Of course, the company did also predict the format war would remain stalemated just weeks before Warner ended the whole thing, so we'd keep a grain of salt handy while reading.

[Via Financial Times]

It's always fun to look back and see which predictions were spot on and which were utter failures, so it's with that same fervor and excitement that we present our top ten predictions for the HD arena in 2009. We'll go ahead and warn you that some of these aren't entirely -- how do you say? -- serious, but surely your deductive reasoning skills aren't that badly hampered after last night's romp.

1) Blu-ray player prices will reach $79 before the year's end.
2) First medium-to-large OLED TV will ship to consumers.
3) SED will still be spinning its wheels.
4) HTPCs will become all but forgotten as media streamers and BD decks gain functionality.
5) Wireless HD will still remain insignificant to the general populace.
6) A consumer-level 2K flat-panel will see development.
7) Mayhem will ensue on or around February 17, 2009.
8) 3D HDTVs will reach critical mass at the consumer level, material will still be tough to acquire.
9) 720p video recording will appear on several cellphones.
10) Blu-ray players will be able to effectively replace HD streamers / HTPCs by having access to networked media, Hulu, Netflix Watch Instantly and the entire world of internet-based content.

We can't possibly explain how difficult it was to narrow this down to ten, so do us a favor and mention the predictions we couldn't in comments below. Here's hoping '09 is a banner year for high-def.

Of late, there has been quite a bit of press circulating which suggests that Blu-ray isn't faring too well. At that head of those sentiments was a Samsung UK director named Andy Griffiths, who casually predicted that BD only had about five good years of life remaining. Unsurprisingly, senior VP of corporate communications at Sony Rick Clancy has hit back with an epic tale of why the format is actually not nearing its end. In fact, he suggests that Blu-ray will eventually live harmoniously with digital downloads, and he forecast that BD has "perhaps a decade" of growth to come. He also snuck in a few plugs for his PS3 and BRAVIA HDTVs, but more on the point, he essentially stated that not enough of the world had broadband (yet) for downloadable content to pose a real threat. Right, because the vast majority of the globe definitely has a few C-notes to lay on a BD player. We're only kidding (kind of).

[Via SonyInsider]

Move over, 2012. 2010 is up first, and Aspen Optics is asserting that it'll be a banner year for fiber. Granted, we're taking all of this pretty lightly given the industry that it's in, but nevertheless, said company is proclaiming that FTTH (fiber to the home) will soon be known as FTEH (fiber to every home) while FTTO (fiber to the office) will morph into FTEO (fiber to every office). The proclamation does note that we're talking about "developed nations" here, and the release does tend to focus on the UAE in particular, but this provides good fodder for discussion if nothing else. Do you see fiber booming in just 18 months? We're guessing it'll take a few more years beyond that for it to really make a play for significant cable market share, but hey, we'd love to be wrong.

[Via Developing Telecoms]

Blu-ray still has a lot of convincing to do before ABI believes it's the future, mostly because of upconverting DVD players. According to the analyst's figures, while 35% of DVD players sold today (that low?) upconvert, 60% will by 2013 (again, that low?). The state of Blu-ray hardware going forward isn't to their liking either, with principal analyst Steve Wilson stating "studios better hope that people are playing movies on their Playstations. Otherwise there's very little installed base." With PS3s accounting for 85% of Blu-ray players in 2008, ABI doesn't see things evening out until 2013, with high prices for dedicated players keeping sales volume lower than studios would like. Of course, ABI also saw combo drives as the next big thing in 2012, so we wouldn't return all of our high def discs just yet.

Considering that we've already asked you for general tech predictions in 2008, as well as taken the time to peer into your mind about the most anticipated HD innovations, it seems only fair to dedicate a prediction post to the still-raging format war. Of course, if you listen to the analysts, you'll find an incredibly varied selection of responses, but we suppose that follows logic -- you know, considering that we're all really in the dark here. Nevertheless, we figure there's no better way to kick off 2008 (and CES) than to toss out a few outlandish (and we mean outlandish) guesses as to where the format war will be this time next year (if it's still around by then, that is).

1) Warner will indeed go Blu-ray only at CES, sending the HD DVD camp into horrific fits of panic.
2) Warner will throw us all a curveball, confess its unending love for HD DVD and bid adieu to Blu.
3) Combo players will experience an unexpected and completely welcome drop in prices, both formats maintain their edge.
4) DVD forms a militia, overthrows both high-definition formats.
5) Blu-ray finally undercuts HD DVD in the hardware price department, red withers away.
6) Online 1080p movie rentals become the norm, sales of both formats sink.
7) HD DVD woos a major BD studio (or two), steals away Blu market share.
8) A major television manufacturer begins mass marketing sets with either HD DVD / Blu-ray drives within, the excluded format loses ground.
9) Blu-ray figureheads offer Toshiba a grotesquely large sum of money to bow out, BDA celebrates for weeks.
10) Despite incessant rambling from fanboys the world over, sales remain fairly steady throughout 2008 -- we find ourselves in this very spot as 2009 commences.

That's it for our surmising, now let's hear what you all think. You know the drill, drop in your wildest speculation below -- but don't be afraid to mix in a little intelligence, okay?

[Thanks for the idea, Tom!]

Although HDTVs were atop nearly everyone's holiday wish list, it seems that folks aren't splurging as much on their now-stagnant DVD collection as in years past, which could be an "early warning sign" for 2007. According to a recent report by Pali Research analysts Richard Greenfield and Mark Smaldon, next year could be the first year in consumer spending history that DVD sales actually decline. The report is based on Best Buy / Circuit City's relatively sluggish 2006 disc sales, and when you consider the sagging record sales on the music front, the scenario isn't too hard to fathom. Although there's no pinpointed reason why folks aren't divulging quite as much disposable income on DVDs, some analysts suggest that the onset of internet movie downloads and films on demand are cutting into actual disc sales -- something Comcast (and other providers) could have a hand in. Notably, folks are bearish when speculating about the HD DVD and Blu-ray impact, as they say that high definition films won't sell enough to put a dent in the expected downturn, which could bleed all the way into 2008.