As much as we'd like to put stock in Satoru Miyashita's forecast, we're still hesitant to believe that we're just two Consumer Electronic Shows away from seeing big-screen OLED TVs for sale. After Sony's polarizing XEL-1 hit the scene around two years ago, we've seen an anemic amount of action in the commercial OLED TV space. Sure, we've heard promise after promise, but we've still got no solid evidence that a large-screen set is anywhere near a Sam's Club shelf. In a recent interview with the general manager of Seiko Epson's Core Technology Development Center, OLED-Info managed to get this out of the exec: "We see 2012 as being the year that 37"+ OLED TVs will be launched by various makers, and 2015 as the year that sales will really take off for this market." He's referring to the year in which OEMs will begin to use its new inkjet-printing approach to making OLED TVs, which will hopefully allow for easier development of larger panels. 'Til then, we suppose we'll just have to be content with using the Zune HD as our primary television.

While we doubted ABI Research's assertion set-top-box shipments would peak in just over three short years, new data from the house of CCID Consulting sure helps substantiate that very notion. The outfit has taken a cold, hard look at STB adoption in China, and what it found was that citizens were snapping 'em up this year like never before. The numbers show that sales were up 83.4% for the first three quarters of 2008 compared to the same window a year ago, and a couple of main occurrences were to thank. First off, the drive towards ditching analog signals in favor of digital has increased adoption and awareness, and also, many locals picked up boxes in order to either catch the Beijing Olympics more clearly or in high-definition. The takeaway? If China's already buying in big to set-top-boxes, maybe that 2012 prediction isn't so off base after all.

Ah, the infamous 2012. The latest batch of research forecasting out to that fateful year comes from ABI, who is proudly proclaiming that global set-top-box shipments will peak in just over three years. The data includes STBs that pass along satellite, cable, or DTT signals, and the impending decrease is primarily pegged to the transition to all-digital broadcasting. To be frank, we can't say we entirely agree or even understand the logic there, but we can get along with the assertion that STB functionality is apt to become more tightly integrated in HDTVs / HTPCs in the future. Personally, we still feel that there's a lot of life left globally in the dedicated set-top-box, but we all know it's just a matter of time before we're all getting HDD implants in our skulls to log missed episodes of The Office.

Coming at you straight from Shockville is this tidbit: a report claiming that DVD sales are also hitting the skids, along with practically everything in the world save for milk, bread and diamond-clad cellphones. In fact, DVD sales on the whole are down 4% for the year, with the biggest drop occurring in October; it's also noted that Blu-ray sales, according to Warner, will "miss sales projections for the year by 25%." Interestingly, we're told that the slumping economy isn't the only aspect to blame, as media companies are purportedly "dumping more obscure titles on the market, leading to downward pricing pressure," according to Distribution Video and Audio. Of course, we're also informed that digital downloads could be cutting into sales, but even during the down times, the DVD business is still outperforming a whole gaggle of other sectors. Don't cry so soon, DVD, as Black Friday is still to come.

[Image courtesy of Komodo-Sam]

Sony's Rick Clancy spared no mercy when bashing claims that Blu-ray would be old hat within five years, but now we're seeing yet another bigwig predict a similar fate. Singulus, a German company responsible for pumping out Blu-ray duplicators and the like, has recently spoken up via its CEO to suggest that Blu-ray will peak (in terms of delivery of Blu-ray machines) within five to six years. Additionally, CEO Stefan Baustert suggested that the BD market will grow somewhat in 2009, and he boldly predicted that 50% of US households will own a Blu-ray player within two years; of note, he said the same level of penetration wouldn't occur in Germany before 2011 or 2012. Oh sure, it's not like this guy's a clairvoyant or anything, but we'd suspect he knows his business pretty well.

[Image courtesy of The Master Shake Signal]

We knew Japan was warming to Blu-ray, but apparently those tepid desires have morphed into infernos of passion. According to new statistics loosed by the Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA), Blu-ray Disc recorder / player shipments hit a level of 138,000, or around 107 times more than the shipments posted a year ago. Moreover, those shipments accounted for 31% of "overall shipments of DVD equipment on a volume basis." Unsurprisingly, BD equipment -- coupled with flat-panel TVs -- were the two biggest drivers of consumer electronics shipments in Japan this year, with visual equipment shipments rising 8.2% year-over-year. Blu-ray and HDTV: a match made in heaven. Or Tokyo.

[Image courtesy of TVSnob]

Hot on the heels of our own poll asking you dear readers your opinion on HTPCs comes a new report from ABI Research asserting that all-in-one PCs and internet TV functionality "will fuel the nascent home theater PC market." More specifically, it's reported that more and more companies are cranking out compacted machines "with rich multimedia capabilities to appeal to new usage models around the home." Additionally, internet TV functionality packed within HDTVs is touted as something that could be "the next evolutionary plateau," although we -- and Mark Cuban, comically enough -- would beg to differ. All in all, it's tough to say what place an HTPC still has in the market (save for the niche that simply prefers a full-fledged PC in the living room), but integrating all of that functionality into an existing living room component won't be the easiest task.

Not that it bears repeating, but LCDs have a pretty firm grip on the display market at large. Of course, that doesn't mean that other technologies will just sit idly on the sidelines, and research firm iSuppli managed to take a closer look at emerging competitors to see just how viable some alternatives actually are. It should be noted that the report tends to focus on displays used in smaller wares, such as navigators, cellphones and heads-up displays, but the findings can certainly be applied to the HDTV industry at large. Throughout the writeup, bi-stable displays -- defined as "electronic displays that are capable of presenting an image without using power" -- are expected to see the biggest growth in the coming years, while near-eye display revenue and the global HUD market will see slightly less impressive gains. Moreover, the pocket projector market is poised to explode, as it promises gigantic output from an incredibly diminutive footprint. Granted, it remains to be seen how long it'll take for a 1080p projector to fit in the palm of one's hand, but we can safely say we're already infatuated with the idea.

[Image courtesy of PolymerVision]

Earlier this year, we saw reports that hinted at "flat" DVD sales for the remainder of 2007, so it follows logic to hear that standalone DVD players are seeing a similar fate. Reportedly, around 80-percent of US consumers have a DVD player somewhere in their domicile, which reinforces the fact that the market is pretty well saturated. Furthermore, sales of the aforementioned units have "declined 15-percent for the 12 months ending September 2007," and that's coming off of a 24-percent slide the year before. As for DVD recorders, things aren't look too much brighter; sales of these gizmos were also down 15-percent during the year ending September 2007, which is quite a change from the 50-percent uptick it saw during the same window last year. Still, none of this should come as a surprise to anyone remotely paying attention, as the age of HD films has officially arrived -- even though we've yet to choose a single format to lead us down glory road. Nevertheless, we still foresee quite a few people picking up incredibly inexpensive DVD players as gifts this holiday season, but we highly doubt you'll need to throw down on anyone in aisle five this year to get your hands on one.

[Image courtesy of NY Times]

Oh, how the times they are a-changin'. Merely months after Vizio ousted Samsung as the LCD TV king in Q2, Sammy is back on top of overall flat-panel TV sales here in North America. Thanks primarily to a staggering 37-percent quarter-to-quarter growth rate (compared to Vizio's 12-percent), Samsung now has an 11.8-percent unit share compared to Vizio's 10.2-percent. Strictly looking at LCD TVs, Vizio still isn't holding the gold; rather, Sharp rocketed ahead to the top spot in that category and left the previous leader clinging to second. It should be noted that Vizio's sales are far from stagnant -- the firm has experienced a 334-percent increase year-to-year in LCD TV growth compared to Sharp's 88-percent. Still, we wouldn't count on the current leaderboard staying this way for long, as Black Friday (and the holiday season in general) has a tendency to shake things up.

Let's face it, consumers eying an HDTV are looking at the pricetag just as often, if not more often, than the picture quality, contrast ratio, or number of HDMI inputs. Companies like Vizio who have entered this cutthroat market and excelled have done so on price, and no one knows price better than Wal-Mart. The mega-corp has been adamant about undercutting big box retailers, and while you aren't likely to walk into a Wally World electronics section and find the clean, uncluttered, and well-stocked shelves that a next door neighbor may have, you're likely to stomach the environment for a few minutes in order to save a few Benjamins. An MSNBC writeup took a look at how Wal-Mart's industry-leading price scheme is potentially hurting the other guys, and it even goes so far as to suggest that the recent store closings and layoffs at Circuit City, Tweeter, CompUSA, and Rex Stores were all triggered by the giant slashing prices to acquire razor-thin margins. Of course, it's no secret that HDTV prices in general have been sinking like a stone over the past half year or so, and while the boutiques are banking on customers finally coughing up the extra dough for "knowledge staff" and better all-around service, we're betting that price still remains king in the land of HDTV.

[Via BloggingStocks]

It looks like Hitachi is continuing to follow the go-big mantra revived by the 1TB 7K1000, as the firm is reportedly looking to crank out quite a few 85-inch plasma HDTVs over the next few years. Of course, this forthcoming beauty won't take the crown for the largest PDP out there, but it could very well achieve the metrics the sales crew is hoping for. Hitachi is looking to hit the 50-inch and over category hard, increasing overall PDP marketshare to 20-percent, and boosting its stake in the aforementioned subset to over 30-percent. Still, the company probably has a fairly good backup plan if plasma sales continue to sag, but we reckon a respectably priced behemoth such as this could definitely make up the slack if it's bringing the goods.

While we're sure quite a few of you are taking the day off to enjoy the first few days of March Madness in HD on your beautiful Philips plasma display, we certainly hope you weren't planning on eventually replacing it with yet another Philips. Turns out that Rudy Provoost, CEO of Philips Consumer Electronics, has reportedly announced that the outfit will "phase out of the PDP market and focus on LCD TVs in the future." Interestingly, it sounds like the presumably lucrative (or not) North American / Australian markets will still have the opportunity to purchase its plasmas for an undisclosed amount of time to come, while the rest of the world (including China later this year) will be forced to look elsewhere to satisfy their PDP needs. Of course, this isn't the first time a major player has dropped out of the plasma game entirely, but ranking fourth worldwide with just a ten-percent market share apparently wasn't enough for Philips to hang on any longer. So, Sony, you still looking to scratch the re-entry itch?

[Thanks, Jason M.]

Update: Philips wanted to let us know that Plasma is still on their plate for 2007: "Incorrectly reported comments on a Russian news website have suggested that Philips is pulling out of the PDP (Plasma Display Panel) FlatTV market. For the foreseeable future, Philips will continue to include gas plasma-based sets in its overall product mix of FlatTVs sold around the world. Since Philips introduced the world's first plasma-based FlatTV over 10 years ago, it has consistently applied the best display technologies available to meet consumer needs, using both plasma and LCD panels to manage the product mix in the most optimum way. However, it is widely acknowledged that over time LCD will become the dominant flat panel TV technology, serving all screen sizes currently addressed by both LCD and PDP solutions, and this will inevitably shape Philips' product strategy in this market segment."

Okay, so maybe this report is crammed with hopes and dreams of a momentous comeback, but in all reality, we just don't envision this happening with market pressures as they are. Although Sony threatened to make an exit from the plasma market for a good while before actually pulling the proverbial cord, it seems that there's now a glimmer of hope that it'll bring those Sony-branded PDPs back. DigiTimes has it that Sony is "considering" its options and is currently in talks with Fujitsu Hitachi Plasma Display (FHP); interesting, Sony Taiwan said that it "had not received any notice about such a plan," and doubted this would go down due to a Samsung / Sony joint-venture S-LCD plant hitting volume production later this year. Granted, Sony has been known to bicker over the plummeting flat-panel prices, but could be looking for a way to effectively (and profitably) add to those record setting sales even more. Whatever the case, we're sure that potential plasma buyers wouldn't mind the added competition, but until this gets beyond the rumor mill, we're not looking over our shoulder in anticipation.

Sure, it's no surprise to see bleeding-edge tech plummet in price soon after the initial craze is over, but Sony NEC Optiarc is estimating that Blu-ray disc drive prices will "drop 50 percent from current levels amid aggressive development" by other manufacturers. Shuji Minami -- the product business group's general manager -- is suggesting that increased production by alternative manufacturers will open up the currently tight supply line. We've heard Sony blaming the overwhelming shortage of Blu-ray components for its Playstation 3 supply quandaries, and we've assumed the inclusion of such a drive somewhat justifies (or not) the staggeringly high pricetag, but we can't say we're sharoosed that prices will be dramatically lower in just over 12 months. Regardless, the firm is touting Window's forthcoming Vista operating system as encouragement for more producers to hop on the (nearly empty) bandwagon, so if you're cool with holding out on (questionably beneficial) 1080p flicks for another year or so, you'll (unsurprisingly) find yourself a lot richer for it. But for you European blokes who'll be suffering the same launch day madness that we're still surviving next year, we highly doubt Sony will cut you any slack, especially considering how much dough they're already losing.