Okay..how about enough of dreaming and just do it eh...Last year it was supposed to be revolutionary when format war ended, now 2012.. I mean just stop talking about it and do it.
Everybody is already sick and tired of these predictions that come in right about the time when there's negative press about Blu-ray in some way. We've been hearing these predictions for whole last year and this year. We've heard enough already.
Hardware is irrelevant and it will undoubtedly go down because until they do mainstream won't buy. The key here are discs.
From the article there's actually a contradictory information:
"When the company recently surveyed consumers, 85% of Blu-ray households said they buy discs versus 62% of non-Blu-ray owners. Also, 81% Blu-ray owners said they rent discs, compared to 59% of non-owners who said the same. With purchasing new movies online, the breakdown was 11% Blu-ray, 3% non-owners."
So if number of Blu-ray households they actually buy discs why is the attachment ratio so low? And also 81% Blu-ray owners rent?! This seems like non-owners actually buy more. These numbers don't really make sense.
And what does this mean? "Now, household penetration of high-definition hardware in the U.S. is split 3% set-top and 6% PS3. That will switch in 2012 to 53% set-top and 22% PS3."
So what constitutes household penetration of 91%? So percentage of Blu-ray households will be 75% by 2012? Is that what they are claiming? Can someone clarify this?
So from their prediction Blu-ray will be 50% of hardware market and it will sell 75 million software units by 2012? Okay.. let's wait and see. I don't doubt hardware will go down in prices and there's no doubt that people who have HDTVs will buy it on account of Netflix and other features they don't have in DVD players. This is a given at $50 a pop but the real question about whether or not these software sales number will happen is if people actually WANT to buy more discs or rent and IMO it is almost guaranteed that there's no chance they hit that number if discs remain priced as they are now.
The reason DVD sales are falling is not because people want Blu-ray. It's because people don't want to buy discs period. They rent more and more and this will definitely not change with Blu-ray especially when they can stream Netflix or other services regardless of the quality.
Can't say I agree. People still want their movies on physical media, check out the latest polls from Home Media Retailing, Video Business and HUC polls. The problem is a recession as number one, and number 2 is that many people have run out of shelf space for DVD's they own so many, and not only that, I do believe there are people cutting back on buying dvd's and waiting until the price of Blu-ray players and movies comes down, because why would they want to buy a DVD version of a movie now when they own a high-def set? Doesn't make sense.
Still, we are in bad economic times, and when DVD came along, the country was in pretty good shape, so it's a battle for any new format. Plus you now have downloads and streaming. Personally, I don't think that is going to be any huge thing for 4-5 more years, because most people do not have the required bandwidth in their homes to download quickly (under 2-3 hours) a full 1080p high def movie, much less with lossless audio. I think people are also used to extras on the disc now, they don't get that with a download. Finally, ALL storage devices WILL fail at some point. I lost almost 100 high def movies from my external hard drive from Dish Network that I stored...the drive failed, a Seagate Freeagent, rated one of the best, so how reliable is buying movies and storing them on a drive, even with a backup? If you lose it, will the studio give you another download free because you purchased the movie in the past? Most services now only allow the movie to be downloaded once and that's it. My Blu-rays are ready and available 24 hours a day and will be on the shelf for years to come!
It will certainly be interesting to see how it all plays out but I think Blu-ray has quite high potential, as soon as the player prices near $100 and the movies start to become reasonably priced. Charging $39.95 suggested retail for a film from the 60's, 70's or 80's is just not realistic, yet they are trying to do it. That is just crazy. Then you have Warner Brothers releasing Wizard of Oz and Gone with the Wind on Blu-ray in $60-80 sets and not available as a single Blu-ray if you want only the film. This, to me, is a very stupid move.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Bozster @ Jun 26th 2009 12:52PM
Here we go again.
Okay..how about enough of dreaming and just do it eh...Last year it was supposed to be revolutionary when format war ended, now 2012.. I mean just stop talking about it and do it.
Everybody is already sick and tired of these predictions that come in right about the time when there's negative press about Blu-ray in some way. We've been hearing these predictions for whole last year and this year. We've heard enough already.
Hardware is irrelevant and it will undoubtedly go down because until they do mainstream won't buy. The key here are discs.
From the article there's actually a contradictory information:
"When the company recently surveyed consumers, 85% of Blu-ray households said they buy discs versus 62% of non-Blu-ray owners. Also, 81% Blu-ray owners said they rent discs, compared to 59% of non-owners who said the same. With purchasing new movies online, the breakdown was 11% Blu-ray, 3% non-owners."
So if number of Blu-ray households they actually buy discs why is the attachment ratio so low? And also 81% Blu-ray owners rent?! This seems like non-owners actually buy more. These numbers don't really make sense.
And what does this mean?
"Now, household penetration of high-definition hardware in the U.S. is split 3% set-top and 6% PS3. That will switch in 2012 to 53% set-top and 22% PS3."
So what constitutes household penetration of 91%? So percentage of Blu-ray households will be 75% by 2012? Is that what they are claiming? Can someone clarify this?
So from their prediction Blu-ray will be 50% of hardware market and it will sell 75 million software units by 2012? Okay.. let's wait and see. I don't doubt hardware will go down in prices and there's no doubt that people who have HDTVs will buy it on account of Netflix and other features they don't have in DVD players. This is a given at $50 a pop but the real question about whether or not these software sales number will happen is if people actually WANT to buy more discs or rent and IMO it is almost guaranteed that there's no chance they hit that number if discs remain priced as they are now.
The reason DVD sales are falling is not because people want Blu-ray. It's because people don't want to buy discs period. They rent more and more and this will definitely not change with Blu-ray especially when they can stream Netflix or other services regardless of the quality.
mntwister @ Jun 27th 2009 12:10AM
Can't say I agree. People still want their movies on physical media, check out the latest polls from Home Media Retailing, Video Business and HUC polls. The problem is a recession as number one, and number 2 is that many people have run out of shelf space for DVD's they own so many, and not only that, I do believe there are people cutting back on buying dvd's and waiting until the price of Blu-ray players and movies comes down, because why would they want to buy a DVD version of a movie now when they own a high-def set? Doesn't make sense.
Still, we are in bad economic times, and when DVD came along, the country was in pretty good shape, so it's a battle for any new format. Plus you now have downloads and streaming. Personally, I don't think that is going to be any huge thing for 4-5 more years, because most people do not have the required bandwidth in their homes to download quickly (under 2-3 hours) a full 1080p high def movie, much less with lossless audio. I think people are also used to extras on the disc now, they don't get that with a download. Finally, ALL storage devices WILL fail at some point. I lost almost 100 high def movies from my external hard drive from Dish Network that I stored...the drive failed, a Seagate Freeagent, rated one of the best, so how reliable is buying movies and storing them on a drive, even with a backup? If you lose it, will the studio give you another download free because you purchased the movie in the past? Most services now only allow the movie to be downloaded once and that's it. My Blu-rays are ready and available 24 hours a day and will be on the shelf for years to come!
It will certainly be interesting to see how it all plays out but I think Blu-ray has quite high potential, as soon as the player prices near $100 and the movies start to become reasonably priced. Charging $39.95 suggested retail for a film from the 60's, 70's or 80's is just not realistic, yet they are trying to do it. That is just crazy. Then you have Warner Brothers releasing Wizard of Oz and Gone with the Wind on Blu-ray in $60-80 sets and not available as a single Blu-ray if you want only the film. This, to me, is a very stupid move.
Chris @ Jun 30th 2009 5:23PM
I have 3 Blu-ray discs in my home... all 3 were Gifts.
I have never rented a Blu-ray, (i WILL NOT rent a blu-ray till the price is equal to or less than renting a DVD).
I used to rent DVD's till the price for renting them went up (WHY HELL DID THAT HAPPEN)?
I will buy Blu-ray movies when they are not more then 10% more then a DVD.
it is not about hardware...People are buying the Hardware.
it is about impulse buys. (only exception is for collector items)
If they want our money, they have to take less of it at a time.
Sony had it right, (can't believe i just said that) they have a loss leader... downfall was that the disc's aren't following quickly enough.