http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/ Engadget HD Comments for Futuresource still predicting big things for Blu-ray http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/media/feedlogo.gif http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com en-us Copyright 2009 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/
Neilson shows us Blu-ray is lying flat on it's back, it might not be quite dead but the idea that it's about to spring up and reveal a vitality not seen so far is pretty funny.

In case you missed it, Neilson gave Bly-ray sales stats (even the cherry-picked 'show Blu-ray in the best light possible') of only $16 million last week.
The week before was even more dire at less than $8 million.

(BTW it would be nice if you would link their previous guesses,
just so we can see their track-record as a professional bunch of futurologists.)]]>Jun 26th 2009 12:42PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/

Okay..how about enough of dreaming and just do it eh...Last year it was supposed to be revolutionary when format war ended, now 2012.. I mean just stop talking about it and do it.

Everybody is already sick and tired of these predictions that come in right about the time when there's negative press about Blu-ray in some way. We've been hearing these predictions for whole last year and this year. We've heard enough already.

Hardware is irrelevant and it will undoubtedly go down because until they do mainstream won't buy. The key here are discs.

From the article there's actually a contradictory information:

"When the company recently surveyed consumers, 85% of Blu-ray households said they buy discs versus 62% of non-Blu-ray owners. Also, 81% Blu-ray owners said they rent discs, compared to 59% of non-owners who said the same. With purchasing new movies online, the breakdown was 11% Blu-ray, 3% non-owners."

So if number of Blu-ray households they actually buy discs why is the attachment ratio so low? And also 81% Blu-ray owners rent?! This seems like non-owners actually buy more. These numbers don't really make sense.

And what does this mean?
"Now, household penetration of high-definition hardware in the U.S. is split 3% set-top and 6% PS3. That will switch in 2012 to 53% set-top and 22% PS3."

So what constitutes household penetration of 91%? So percentage of Blu-ray households will be 75% by 2012? Is that what they are claiming? Can someone clarify this?

So from their prediction Blu-ray will be 50% of hardware market and it will sell 75 million software units by 2012? Okay.. let's wait and see. I don't doubt hardware will go down in prices and there's no doubt that people who have HDTVs will buy it on account of Netflix and other features they don't have in DVD players. This is a given at $50 a pop but the real question about whether or not these software sales number will happen is if people actually WANT to buy more discs or rent and IMO it is almost guaranteed that there's no chance they hit that number if discs remain priced as they are now.

The reason DVD sales are falling is not because people want Blu-ray. It's because people don't want to buy discs period. They rent more and more and this will definitely not change with Blu-ray especially when they can stream Netflix or other services regardless of the quality.
]]>Jun 26th 2009 12:52PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/
Still, we are in bad economic times, and when DVD came along, the country was in pretty good shape, so it's a battle for any new format. Plus you now have downloads and streaming. Personally, I don't think that is going to be any huge thing for 4-5 more years, because most people do not have the required bandwidth in their homes to download quickly (under 2-3 hours) a full 1080p high def movie, much less with lossless audio. I think people are also used to extras on the disc now, they don't get that with a download. Finally, ALL storage devices WILL fail at some point. I lost almost 100 high def movies from my external hard drive from Dish Network that I stored...the drive failed, a Seagate Freeagent, rated one of the best, so how reliable is buying movies and storing them on a drive, even with a backup? If you lose it, will the studio give you another download free because you purchased the movie in the past? Most services now only allow the movie to be downloaded once and that's it. My Blu-rays are ready and available 24 hours a day and will be on the shelf for years to come!

It will certainly be interesting to see how it all plays out but I think Blu-ray has quite high potential, as soon as the player prices near $100 and the movies start to become reasonably priced. Charging $39.95 suggested retail for a film from the 60's, 70's or 80's is just not realistic, yet they are trying to do it. That is just crazy. Then you have Warner Brothers releasing Wizard of Oz and Gone with the Wind on Blu-ray in $60-80 sets and not available as a single Blu-ray if you want only the film. This, to me, is a very stupid move.]]>Jun 27th 2009 12:10AMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/
I have never rented a Blu-ray, (i WILL NOT rent a blu-ray till the price is equal to or less than renting a DVD).

I used to rent DVD's till the price for renting them went up (WHY HELL DID THAT HAPPEN)?

I will buy Blu-ray movies when they are not more then 10% more then a DVD.

it is not about hardware...People are buying the Hardware.
it is about impulse buys. (only exception is for collector items)

If they want our money, they have to take less of it at a time.

Sony had it right, (can't believe i just said that) they have a loss leader... downfall was that the disc's aren't following quickly enough.]]>Jun 30th 2009 5:23PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/Jun 26th 2009 2:12PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/
Okay, if it's not a failure, it will pick up, I agree with you.

And 50% might be in US. Whole world? No way. So what's the point of the research?

I just hate smoke and mirrors. I would appreciate them more if they worked on lowering prices and come out with fixed standard for Blu-ray so I don't have to repurchase players every year to use all features offered for the format. It's my right as a consumer and Blu-ray owner who spent thousands of dollars to be dissatisfied with it.]]>Jun 26th 2009 3:11PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/
Netflix or other services of equal quality. Yeah right !

Of course THEY are sick and tired of any prediction that doesn't conform to their whishes.

What everybody is sick and tired about is these whiners constant attempt to spin any good news about BD.]]>Jun 26th 2009 3:25PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/Jun 26th 2009 3:25PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/
true.. I agree.. maybe it gets repetitive. I should abstain for a little bit cause it's always the same things.]]>Jun 26th 2009 3:47PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/
The poll a few days ago showing HD DVD having more penetration than Blu-ray was absurd, and it deserved to be exposed as absurd. EHD seems to take the view however that any criticism of Blu-ray's performance must require a week or so of positive stories about that format.

If EHD was a fair friend of Blu-ray, and was prepared to criticize its flaws in an attempt to get them fixed, that would be one thing. But it isn't. EHD comes across as a mindless Blu-ray cheerleader, unable to handle the notion that the format might not be doing that well and constantly promoting the notion that there are no problems in Blu-ray land.

In other words, EHD looks ridiculous, more so than the idiots who posted that poll without doing a sanity check on the results.

What a mess.]]>Jun 26th 2009 5:32PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/Jun 26th 2009 9:41PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/
Engadget had people that were both Red and Blu during the format war. To suggest they are shameless BD shills is silly in the utmost. After all, they post on Netflix, iTunes, and every kind of streaming hardware out there.

And In terms of getting flaws fixed... EngadgetHD has actually done that! They've ragged on BD-Live since the beginning, and even gotten Sony involved directly in a discussion. How is this NOT fixing flaws?

Do people actually read this site, or do they just jump into the comments and bitch about Blu-ray whenever it's mentioned? I'm c'mon people.

-Pie]]>Jun 26th 2009 6:39PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/
EHD does indeed cover some alternatives to BD, but EHD covers those at best dispassionately or often even negatively, without the bias seen in Blu-ray articles. If a poorly designed survey came out suggesting VHS tapes were doing better than Netflix streaming, do you honestly think we'd see four or five articles explaining how well Netflix is doing?

Indeed, Netflix's streaming video penetration, after barely a year or so of operation, is now at 20% of its customer base, and EHD actually prefixed that stat with "only" the other day:

"This is of course why Netflix is actively building it's streaming service which evidently is currently only used by 20 percent of Netflix customers."

EHD has, indeed, done some minor criticism of BD-Live, but it's notable they've focussed on a little used feature that doesn't appear on DVD, rather than a drop-dead feature that has to work in order for users to be able to use it. Blu-ray's flaws right now include BD+ (a guarantee you will never find a player capable of playing every BD disc). They include secure path (which adds immense complexity to every stage of the playing process causing everything from Windows Vista to your Player -> Receiver -> TV link to be a restrictive, bug-ridden, mess), and expense. They include mandatory AACS DRM which means that niche content or content that nobody would want to spend more than a few dollars on will never, ever, come out on Blu-ray. Want a hi-def Nosferatu or Carnival of Souls? They'll probably be available in HD on the Internet sooner.

As if to add insult to injury, EHD's attitude towards certain features, including BD-Live, has always been to suggest it's unnecessary and not wanted, and then go out of the way to promote that, rather than try to get it fixed. Look at the bizarre push-poll last week where EHD suggested that the studios had two choices for managed copy, either make it entirely free (not going to happen), or charge a minimum of $10 for every copy including the first (not going to happen either.)

So yeah, forgive me, but I don't think EHD is interested in addressing BD's flaws. It's interested in pushing the technology. It will continue to report successes of non-BD content negatively. It will continue to ignore or sweep under the carpet the serious issues Blu-ray has. And it will continue, every sodding time any survey comes out suggesting that BD isn't actually doing well, to flood us with a week's worth of surveys saying the opposite.

But, hey, they're a blog, so they shouldn't care if they have credibility or not, and so we shouldn't care either, we should just treat EHD as a work of fiction, and actually not bother reading it.]]>Jun 27th 2009 9:11AMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/Standardize control interface on all discs.
Fix the ridiculous load times.
Lower the absurd disc prices.
Finalise and finish the spec once and for all, in other words, bring the FN product into the 21st century!

If they don't fix the train wreck that is blu ray, it's going nowhere, the masses wont put up with this BS if the enthusiasts have the shits with it!
]]>Jun 26th 2009 9:27PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/Jun 26th 2009 11:41PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/Jun 27th 2009 12:01AMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/Jun 27th 2009 12:05AMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/Jun 27th 2009 12:47AMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/
There is a rest of the world out there in case you hadn't realised, and for the other 99% of us, the discs are to FN expensive, best I can buy a 2 year old catalog P.O.S is about $30, $25 if i waited for a sale, is that all right with you?]]>Jun 27th 2009 1:21AMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/
From cheapest to highest.
http://www.ezydvd.com.au/mech/quicksearch.zml?q=blu%20ray%20movies&searchStart=50]]>Jun 27th 2009 1:40AMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/Jun 27th 2009 12:30PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/ RESUME PLAY!!

My Oppo BDP-83 does resume play as long as the disc itself does not prevent it.

>Standardize control interface on all discs.

Up to the studio's. Can't really blaim the format for being flexible.

> Fix the ridiculous load times.

Oppo BDP-83


]]>Jun 28th 2009 12:04PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/Yes, the prices are ludicrously expensive and I cant import a lot of movies
> now like I used to because of the stupid region coding BS

I dont like region coding at all (simply doesnt fit in the global economy), so get a region free player then. I just installed a hacked firmware in my Blu-ray player and it plays both my region B and A titles now.

Besides, something like 70% of all Blu-ray discs arent region coded at all. There are far more of my DVD's that is region coded than my Blu-ray's.]]>Jun 28th 2009 12:04PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/Jun 27th 2009 12:16AMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/06/26/futuresource-still-predicting-big-things-for-blu-ray/
GAMES TO DRIVE HOME ENTERTAINMENT GROWTH THROUGH 2013

"It’s going to be another tough couple years for home video. PWC predicts that physical sell-through spending will continue downward through 2011 before rebounding in 2012. By 2013, PWC projects sell-through spending will hit $16 billion, above the $14.9 billion the firm says it reached in 2008.

PWC analysts blame the economy for the downturn in home video sales, noting that Blu-ray, although worth the higher price tag, is viewed as expensive for consumers cutting back.

“It’s a hard discretionary buy,” said Stefanie Kane, partner with PWC’s entertainment and media practice. “That will hold down growth on the physical side for the next couple years.”

Meanwhile, DVD and Blu-ray rentals, which have benefited from the economic downturn, will dip 0.4% by 2013 to $7.5 billion as video-on-demand and online rentals gain with consumers. Online disc rentals are expected to double in the next five years to $4.1 billion by 2013. PWC predicts that downloads directly to TV sets and enhanced subscription rental services will drive online growth.

Digital download sales and rentals will continue to see fast growth over each of the next five years, but they’ll still only be a fraction of physical sales, reaching $713 million by 2013, up from PWC’s projection of $252 million in sales in 2008."

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6667709.html


So it seems that Futuresource stats seem very optimistic.

But who cares about these statistics and future gueswork, right? ;)
]]>Jun 27th 2009 5:06AM