The CEA had expected that sales of
Blu-ray decks would reach around 5.7 million units this year, and while some may quickly assume that this whole economic crisis may sideline that forecast, many analysts are saying that it could actually
help matters. On one hand, it's easy to assume that potential BD buyers will opt to simply hold tight to their funds, but on the other, many may justify the purchase of higher-end in-home electronics given that they'll be spending less time out on the town. Tim Alessi, LG Electronics product development director, confessed that he was "still in agreement with the CEA's estimates that Blu-ray decks have the potential to double this year to roughly 5.7 million units. Jonathan Zupnik, Sears audio/video/TV DMM, stated the following: "As we are hearing the opening price point is already flashing $149 - it needs to be $99 to really get things going. Even with that, as long as the movies are over $20 that will continue to keep things at a relatively slow pace. The consumer is used to [disc prices of] $13.99 at launch and picking through bins at $3.99." We totally hear you, Mr. Zupnik.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Doc @ Feb 26th 2009 9:46AM
WOW, someone is actually using common sense??... alright where's the camera at??
IMO, if the economy keep tanking(which it will) sales aren't going to meet expectations player wise. Now if they pull their heads out of their collective asses, and drop the idiot/dork tax that they put on disks, then IMO they will have some nice growth there. Having to hunt online for sales is nice for some of us who know where the deals are, but it's going to take being able to walk into any brick & mortar store and find cheap movies for the sales for to really grow.
Good article.
Owen Chadmire @ Feb 26th 2009 12:29PM
Doc you mention hunting for online sales are ok for those in the know otherwise brick and motar need to lower their prices. What about the so called online downloads. Everyone will need to get online to find the best price. The product wont be on the shelves to be see at a retailer. If you think this is bad, downloads will be even worse.
Doc @ Feb 26th 2009 12:38PM
Yeah, let's not even think about that one...you're right it's a complete joke purchase wise, although I do like my experience so far with Netflix!!
SteveMak @ Feb 26th 2009 10:48AM
There is an old saying: "Give me better, or cheaper." Translated, most people are looking for something "better" at the same price, or something as good at a lower price. That's the easy sell. A much harder sell is "sure it's more expensive, but it's better", which is what Blu-ray is proposing. Meanwhile, many TV viewers don't notice a 4:3 image stretched on a 16:9 screen.
I may be in the minority, but I think Blu-ray would get massive market share as follows:
(1) Release Blu-ray/DVD combos for the same price as regular DVDs. And Blu-ray only packs for less. Discontinue selling DVD-only packs.
(2) Release entry-level Blu-ray players at $99.
This way, the existing DVD market would get Blu-ray disks into their homes (Blu-ray/DVD combos), and also have an incentive to save money in the long run by buying a Blu-ray player ($99), and buying Blu-ray only packs.
Meanwhile, video streaming is catching on like wild-fire for the "good enough" crowd. In many cases, it's at least as good as standard definition TV, which is what most of the world watches today.
Hmmmm. Streaming realizes it's competing against standard def TV content, while Blu-ray doesn't seem to. Give me better for the same price, or the same at a lower price. FWIW, I have HD-DVD, Blu-ray, upscaled SD-DVD, streaming, etc.
wreckedchevy @ Feb 26th 2009 11:15AM
that idea would work if the studios had any interest in replacing dvd i honestly thing they enjoy the premium they get to charge for bluray and at the moment they get to double dip a few people who want copies of both. that and add in they extra costs of making bluray disc's if the studios ditched dvd for bluray by selling the same price they wouldn't make as much money which in the end is all they care about so they just as well stick with dvd at that point or start pushing downloads which causes them no packaging costs. the studios are not going to take a hit to make blu the future they don't care about the format's they just want to make money.... if they could put a movie on a tuna sandwhich and sell it for a premium they would (as long as it was drm'd tuna).
Owen Chadmire @ Feb 26th 2009 12:29PM
Sorry but Streaming isnt catching on like wildfire. Netflix has had some mild success with the xbox crowd but other than that not much. The percentage of users are small compared to the overall video market. Still only one tenth of one percent of all video. Blu ray is growing a a faster pace.
3dpenguin @ Feb 26th 2009 1:06PM
Owen, you might want to check those numbers. Netflix is attributing their recent jump in users to the fact that they are providing online streaming videos, and 10% of their registered users are using the service, so they have about 1,000,000 users using a service that it just over 6 months old with an ever increasing availability of streaming devices, including Blu-ray players taking advantage of the lack of devices for the services, no add several other companies which offer services like Netflix and you'll probably find the number of people actually downloading or streaming media, legally or illegally, probably rivals or exceeds the number of dedicated blu-ray users, digital delivered media is coming faster than most Blu-ray users want to accept. Why won’t they accept it? Because it means they made as big of a mistake as HD DVD owners by backing another optical media, when opticals were reaching the end of their useful and competitive life. The hatred for Netflix by Blu-ray users probably stems from the fact that a good percentage own PS3s which doesn’t have any streaming media service outside of that provided by Sony.
KraziJoe @ Feb 26th 2009 11:57AM
As long as you need to do Firmware updates to view a movie, BR will not become commonplace.
bry2an @ Feb 26th 2009 12:56PM
There seem to be 2 sets of Analysts. The ones saying that Blu-ray will sell over 100 million movies this year and the ones that like to stay luke warm to Blu-ray.
It seems the ones that are still luke warm are the ones wanting to make headlines as they are not looking at the growth and numbers.
I'm not saying the analysts that think 100 million are not as well it just seems that anyone thinking that Blu-ray is a possible flounder needs to remove their personal feelings and look at the numbers. DVD sales are down Blu-ray sales are up.
squiggleslash @ Feb 26th 2009 2:49PM
Now we're actually getting figures that compare year on year, the evidence is that Blu-ray sales are up, but only around 50% (30% one week, 66% the other two) over this time last year. And this time last year, it was competing against the going-out-of-business HD DVD which was selling like crazy.
http://www.engadgethd.com/tag/NielsenVideoscan/
So, really, the cautious analysts are the ones being sane here. If you look at it, for the most part it seems to be "Obscure Market Research Company Nobody's Ever Heard Of" doing the "Blu-ray will outpace DVD by 2010!" predictions, together with the BDA itself. Everyone else is being more cautious. The people we've actually heard of who aren't obvious Blu-ray shills tend to say "It'll grow but..."
And I think they're being optimistic. I think there's a serious chance Blu-ray will still be hovering around the 50% growth mark next January. It's a poor format, it remains expensive, most people have TVs where the quality difference isn't as massive as it is for EHD's user base, and the alternatives are getting more attractive every day.
cashmonee @ Feb 26th 2009 5:56PM
You do realize that 50% growth rate is pretty darn good for just about anything. At that rate, the market doubles every year and a half or so. You also never mention that while Blu-Ray has this paltry 50% growth, DVD is flat or down.
As for those talking about digital downloads, everyone always refers to Netflix. But Netflix has poor quality, little penetration in the living room (where it matters), poor selection of current content (especially movies), and the promise of charging for it one day. A look at the services that deliver usable quality (Apple TV, Vudu mainly) shows prices as outrageous as the cost of a Blu-Ray. Most Apple TV movies cost $14.99 for SD no media and no extras. Rentals are $4.99 for HD. Vudu prices are similar. Not to mention the hour or two it will take most people to download these things.
Blu-Ray will be the next major format. I know many were pulling for HD-DVD, I was, but Blu-Ray won. Studios and manufacturers will force DVD out and until we have fast broadband (consistent, reliable >10-15mbps at bare minimum with higher/no caps) and more penetration in the living room downloads will not take off. That leaves Blu-Ray, like it or not.
Gus @ Feb 26th 2009 6:46PM
I look at the movies all ready released and the new releases for the next 6 months or so and I can't help but think it is going to be a tough year for blu. There isn't much there to keep the PS3 crowd happy or many other people for that matter, the studios need to get their rears into gear and start releasing more quality movies, god knows they have millions to choose from.
squiggleslash @ Feb 26th 2009 7:01PM
50% is awful when you consider what the market situation was this time last year and when you consider that most pundits supporting the format believe somehow it's going to be as popular as DVD within the next three years.
This time last year Blu-ray was supposedly being held back by the format war with HD DVD, which is why Warner decided to take a stand in the first place. HD DVD was selling fairly well, as Toshiba was doing its best to get it out there while it still could.
Oh, and here's the kicker. Remember that Warner took a stand because it sincerely believed that the war was hurting sales of both? Well, HD DVD:Blu-ray this time last year was around 20:80. In other words, for this week, with Blu-ray up only 33% over last year, total sales of High Definition discs are almost identical to what they were last year.
Let me repeat that, 'cos I don't think many people "get it". HD DVD and Blu-ray sales combined last year are approximately the same as Blu-ray (the remaining format) sales this year.
Warner's was wrong. The war wasn't hurting Blu-ray or HD DVD sales at all. And by forcing the issue, they appear to have caused the high definition market to stagnate, not grow. Toshiba must be laughing their asses off.
Multi-format-mayhem @ Feb 26th 2009 7:16PM
50% (or more) growth is not such a big deal when starting from such a low base
(afterall a 100% increase might sound spectacular until you realise you could just be describing 2 units sold instead of 1).
The pro-Blu-ray side's (mis)appropriation of the sensible (and correct) argument (that in a diving economy people tend to make more use of their home entertainment stuff) is hilarious, if typically misleading.
Sorry guys buit it actually means people make more use of what they already have.
It does not mean they go out and drop several hundred $ on the Blu-ray player, the HD TV and the audio kit necessary to make the most of Blu-ray.
Wake up.
The truth is that Blu-ray remains firmly planted in the early adopter and PS3 niche, ie it's very very small, still. Especially in global terms.
Of course there's a modicum of growth as that niche grows slowly but nothing seen to far has done anything to genuinely further the mantra that 'Blu-ray is going to be the next DVD'.
Quite the contrary in fact.
DVD's amazing resilience and continuing vast global sales in the face of several competing new formats points to DVD staying exactly where it is for a long long time to come yet in the real mass-market.
The industry might well hate DVD's tiny sales margins but they love it's enormous sales volume.
The PS3 gang will occasionally buy Blu-ray (although I know several owners who are not that bothered),
a/v enthusiasts will largely go premium niche Blu-ray and/or PC downloading/streaming and/or Xbox downloading/streaming with better and better connections.
Nevertheless it looks as if the mass-market will stay resolutely DVD for the foreseeable future - it's perfectly possible that they will skip Blu-ray altogether & choose DVR & streaming, in several years time, regardless of current industry moves.
Policy can change, after-all let's be serious, anyone who honestly imagines that 2009, this year of the global economic slump, is going to see mass adoption of Blu-ray is laughably deluded. 2010 isn't exactly looking like it'll be much better either.
More years tick by with little progress to show & alternative tech & connections continually improving.
(it's amusing to think back to those Blu-ray fanboy posters who told me I was being far too pessimistic about the economy a few months back & that I couldn't possibly know what was going to happen, huh?
About as amusing as those who might now try to claim that Govs across the globe panicking into launching 'stimulus packages' running into the almost trillion $ size is just a regular and normal thing, eh?
Nothing to see here, move along everybody.
.....and don't worry, if the Govs all throw enough (borrowed) money at the problem we can soon return to the credit spree madness that helped get us here in the 1st place, right?
Maybe then Blu-ray will win over the mass-market, huh? lol)
YouFaceTheTick @ Feb 26th 2009 10:50PM
Still can't understand why people buy movies. Love movies. But buying them? no point.
Bozster @ Feb 27th 2009 1:29AM
Well the number of people buying movie is dropping..that's why they say that packaged media simply even with Blu-ray has no growth and will continue being in decline while digital downlaods go up. The reason? Well it's exactly as you say. Many people realized that collecting movies on discs and paying high prices for something they watch 2-3 times in the lifetime of the disc is a waste and a lot of them are simply starting to rent more. That's why Netflix and other rental services like RedBox are growing at a very fast pace.
minimalist @ Feb 27th 2009 9:58AM
Why do people buy movies? The same reason they buy music instead of rent it.
Because when you rent something you are not in control. And if you truly love a movie and want to watch it again and again, on your own terms (and not the studio's or the rental service's) then renting just is not an option. Movies go out of print, licensing deals change, so on and so on.
And "buying" digitally is not something that has been worked out yet. So far "buying" (on Vudu and Xbox) is more like "renting until we go out of business or your box breaks or the DRM or we no longer support the DFM in which we have wrapped your file."
Bozster @ Feb 27th 2009 12:04PM
I don't know how you can compare buying movies and music? Music you constantly replay as it has a different artistic value. You can't rent it but even with that Rhapsody offered very popular all you can eat service. I buy movies as I listen to it everywhere. Movies on the other hand is pretty much one time experience, maybe 2 or 3 times if you really liked the movie but since you know what happens and storyline constantly replaying a movie becomes pointless.
I don't know anyone who played a movie 10 times a day and people play music even more. The value of both is not the same.
It's fascinating to see people make reasoning like you do.
There's a reason why packaged media sales are dropping and it has nothing to do with quality of the video or sound and everything to do with people realizing they need more convenience and that buying something that you'll play 3 times in a lifetime is a waste of money. That's why Netflix has grown immensely. Rentals and video on demand be RedBox or digital download service is the future. Content is moving into the cloud and is accessible everywhere at anytime. Just ask people with libraries of several hundred DVDs (like me) whether or not they are willing to build another library when we all realized that the dust was collecting from the first experience.
Please.
minimalist @ Feb 28th 2009 3:15PM
Speak for yourself Bozster. Lots of people are very casual about music as well so I could just as easily argue that music is a disposable pleasure that doesn't need to be owned. These people can buy the one hit song they heard on the radio from a disposable pop idol and be happy. That's fine for them but I am more interested in the artist so I buy complete albums.
Same with movies. I could care less to buy some blockbuster fluff like Transformers. I'll rent it once and move on and never think about it again. But the movies from directors I really love I watch time and time again... and yes I do watch them about as much as listen to music. There are tons of other film lovers who feel the same way and they don't much care for relying on download services that go in and out of business and fickle film studios to always make sure their favorite films are there for rental.
"I don't know anyone who played a movie 10 times a day and people play music even more. The value of both is not the same. It's fascinating to see people make reasoning like you do"
So happy that I can be fascinating to you, but you need to realize that your personal opinions are not universal truths. They are just your opinions and the studios don;t give a crap about them. All they care about it money and if there is a market, even if its only 1 or 2% it can still be quite profitable to serve it. I don't subscribe to cable. I watch a 10 or 12 movies a week a large majority of which are now out of print and can not be rented (even in the Great Media Cloud that is supposed to save us all we have to deal with licensing agreements that change with the wind). I know lots of film buffs who would rather watch DVD's and Blu-rays than watch the hundreds of channels of nothing on cable TV.
So now you know there are people out there who revisit lots of movies. Just because you don't do the same does not mean there is no money to be made from such a market. The long tail can accommodate ALL of us.
Why is it so important to you that everyone fall in line with your vision of the way media should be consumed? You wouldn't have an agenda now would you?
Bozster @ Feb 27th 2009 1:35AM
Japan industry plunges. It seems that people are not buying as these guys say might happen:
Japan's industrial output plunges:
"The latest figures come days after the government said exports plunged 45.7% in January compared with a year ago. Japan's economy is suffering because of falling demand for its products abroad. Consumers around the world afraid of losing their jobs in the global downturn no longer want to buy Japanese electronic gadgets and cars, the BBC's Roland Buerk in Tokyo says. "
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7914040.stm
This sound quite the opposite from what these "analysts" or whatever they are, are saying.
Multi-format-mayhem @ Feb 27th 2009 1:34PM
Japanese exports down 45.7%.
Incredible and utterly shocking.
'Interesting times' as the Chinese say.
HDpurist @ Mar 7th 2009 9:03PM
Disc media for life.
Streaming sucks and the quality is crap. Whoever thinks downloading movies is superior, give your head a good shake.
benmic @ Mar 11th 2009 1:09PM
starting to see the light...and its not blu....sure, sales will grow......but not as fast as Sony would like......at least until the prices match dvd as said in the article....my humble opinion is most people dont care
personally, Im always interested in the new stuff.....HD whatever....but as I look over my dvd collection I see nothing in there so bad that I have to have it in blu....ever...
when friends come over and we throw the odd game or movie on in HD, maybe 1 in 10 cares its in HD, definitely none of the women do, lol....heck, the wife even will watch a program in standard not caring to check the HD station....startig to think Im wasting my $ on the hd stations
and for myself....more and more I find looking to download a divx, over a rent or a purchase, which to be honest still looks quite fine to me.......
from what I hear and see....more and more, that is where the future will lie for home entertainment....downloading and streaming, in hd or otherwise.... not buying into blu anytime soon