http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/ Engadget HD Comments for Futuresource predicts 100 million Blu-ray Discs sales in 2009 http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/media/feedlogo.gif http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com en-us Copyright 2009 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/
http://www.engadgethd.com/2009/02/23/nielsen-videoscan-high-def-market-share-for-week-ending-february/

According to the VideoScan results, last week Blu-ray was only up 33% over this time last year, though it's worth mentioning it did better the two weeks previous to that, being up around 65% over the same period the previous year.

Which... er... is awful. I mean, last year at this time Toshiba was dumping HD DVD players left right and center, and people were snapping up cheap HD DVDs like they were going out of business (which they were), and this year HD DVD isn't even in the equation, anyone who wants HD is stuck either buying this awful format or waiting around for a viable, affordable (and impulsable) HD downloads system, so Blu-ray ought to be doing absolutely fantastically.

Even if Blu-ray hadn't attracted a single new customer since last February, you'd expect a fairly substantial growth in BD sales simply because of the larger library available.

60% over last year? Seriously? WTF?

Great job Warner. You picked the dud. Great job Sony, with your obsessive control and willingness to whore yourselves over DRM, you made it one.
]]>Feb 24th 2009 2:08PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/Feb 24th 2009 3:12PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/
That's a guess though, I don't work in the industry.
]]>Feb 24th 2009 3:36PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/
I think it is clear why sales numbers are less than fantastic. We are in the midst of the worst economic downturn in over 2 decades. People are tightening belts and cutting frivolous spending like eating out, buying movies, etc. Couple that with lackluster releases this time of year and you have small numbers.

The truth of the matter is that nothing is going to move as long as the economy is the way it is. Having said that, it seems Blu-Ray will still be the next dominant format, it just may take longer to take hold. Downloads are too far off to and have too many hurdles of their own (quality, price, standards, internet speed, bandwidth caps, etc) stop Blu-Ray. And DVD is on the way out. Sooner or later people's DVD players will die and many will go with Blu-Ray because it is the new tech and still plays their old DVDs. I think as we get sub-$200 players (likely this fall) this will become more and more common.]]>Feb 24th 2009 8:18PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/Feb 24th 2009 10:31PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/
Comparing one week in 2009 to one week in 2008 is pointless and I'm not sure why the Videoscan numbers are released that way. Especially in the movie business where one week can have a blockbuster release, the next week nothing, and never the same new releases twice. If there's no major movie released on BD the second week of December 2009 (when The Dark Knight was released in 2008), you're going to see a major drop in revenue from the same week the prior year. Does that mean that BD is failing? No, in fact by that time I'm fairly certain that year-to-date BD revenue will be ahead of where it was at that time last year. Year-to-date revenue is the number that needs to be compared.

That said, I don't have the YTD comparison numbers to look at, but since when is a 50 to 60% revenue growth rate unacceptable? I could understand if we were talking about comparing to hundreds of dollars in sales in 2008, but we're talking about millions. Besides that, everyone knows that disc revenue is driven by new releases, not catalog titles. The two weeks in February 2008 and 2009 had no new releases of any consequence. So that 50 to 60% was driven by catalog titles only which are normally a minor player. Let's see what happens when the first big blockbuster discs of 2009 start showing up. BD will not be judged a success or failure based on your unrealistic expectations. ]]>Feb 25th 2009 2:24PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/Feb 25th 2009 3:03PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/Feb 25th 2009 3:04PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/
Case in point, I have a DVD player on it's last leg, but I am having a real hard time justifying the minimum $250 price tag of a decent Blu-Ray now that the prices have gone up after Christmas. I have a 42", 720p TV that I sit 14 ft from and no surround sound. Even if I invested in surround, I could not afford a setup good enough to tell the difference between DVD and BD. So I am looking at buying a nice DVD player for about 1/3 that.

Make Blu-Ray the only choice. Make it a small premium for the player. Entry players should be $99 MSRP, decent players $149-$199 MSRP. Discs should cost no more than an extra $5. Do those two things and you have a winner. Oh and enough with the profiles and firmware updates for DRM fixes. I do not want to spend triple on the player and movie only to sit down and not be able to watch it because I don't have the right firmware for the DRM. It's confusing, and if something gets confusing average consumers throw up their arms and give up.]]>Feb 24th 2009 8:06PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/Feb 24th 2009 8:08PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/chk it...and enjoy: http://www.hauppauge.com/site/products/data_hdpvr.html

]]>Feb 25th 2009 2:07PMhttp://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/http://enghddev.weblogsinc.com/2009/02/24/futuresource-predicts-100-million-blu-ray-discs-sales-in-2009/
I own about 600+ DVDs and 100+ HD DVDs (no Blu-ray at this time but maybe later when the price drops to $10 per disc).

My primary AV setup...
Toshiba HD DVD H35 with HDMI connection set to 720p video output (matches my projector LCD resolution) and six channel analog audio outputs to a Harmon Kardon 7000 AV amp using analog inputs, speakers from various companies(BOSE, Cerwin-Vega, Polk, Infinity).
Sony Cineza Front Projector to light gray painted wall (Bear Silver Screen) 18 foot away. Projector resolution set to 720p (1 to 1 mapping for the LCD elements in this projector). The Dynamic setting is used for 50k to 1 contrast. The maximum viewable horizontal screen width is 11.5ft. Diagonal size depends on the movies aspect ratio. The projector Bulb is set to low output and usually set to 50% output, contrast is set to 100%. The room is fully blacked out so no light from the outside gets in.

DVDs - when watching a DVD and the focus is set correctly the only major difference I can see is print text either in the credits (readable but smaller text looks a little fuzzy on the edges) or from a printed document when it is shown on the screen (Newspaper - I can read the headlines but the regular print is too fuzzy to read), all other video aspects (color, edge definition and shading) look very good (better than most theaters I attend).

HD DVDs (and Blu-ray from my PC Movie server using LG Blu-ray/HD DVD player with Component connections) do seem to have deeper colors and more defined black shades but the difference is minimal and most of my friends and family that watch don't notice any difference between the different Medias. However with HiDef media I can read newspaper print if the newspaper takes 30% of the screen or more.
If you want to pause a scene and read the newspaper or other fine print displayed on a 13-15 foot video screen then go ahead and buy only Blu-ray - other wise both formats with good equipment and DVD upconversion look as good or better than your neighborhood theater, and no teenagers talking or throwing popcorn at the screen to distract your viewing pleasure.

So if you are limited to only a small 60" or less screen I can't see how any honest viewer could tell which media was playing especially when seated eight or more feet from the display as most viewing rooms provide.

This statement is my humble opinion after over a year watching DVD and HD DVD (and a few Blu-ray discs) in this environment.
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